Las exportaciones de maquila en México y el vínculo con las importaciones de EUA
Jorge Ludlow Wiechers*
Juan Ramiro de la Rosa Mendoza*

Resumen
Se analiza la evolución en general de la industria maquiladora, la cual es un sector prioritario generador de exportaciones, divisas y empleos. El análisis se divide en tres etapas: la maquila tradicional (1965-1984) es ensamble. La fase de consolidación y expansión (1985- 1994) son procesos productivos de mano de obra calificada, técnicos e ingenieros. La fase de modernización tecnológica (1995 a la fecha) es la puesta en marcha del centro de inves- tigación en autopartes, además de la apertura de áreas de ingeniería y diseño. La integración comercial con EUA y Canadá, a fin de impulsar el Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (TLCAN), es revisada mediante un análisis de cointegración, con la siguiente pregunta ¿existe una liga de largo plazo entre la serie de maquila de exportación y la serie de importaciones que realizan los EUA de bienes y servicios provenientes de México, sujeto a la productividad como variable exógena?

Palabras clave: industria maquiladora, exportaciones, divisas, empleos, productividad, TLCAN, integración comercial, cointegración, política comercial.
Clasificación JEL: L22, L23, L51, L52, L62, L68.

* Profesores-Investigadores del Departamento de Economía de la UAM-Azcapotzalco (jlw@correo.azc.uam.mx) y (delarosa@correo.azc.uam.mx).

Exports of the Outsourcing Industry in Mexico and Their Linkage With USA Imports

Abstract
The general evolution of the outsourcing industry (maquila) in Mexico, an important generator of exports, foreign currency and employment is analized. The analysis is divided into three stages. Firstly the traditional assembly maquila (1965-1984) is taken into account. Then the phase of consolidation and expansion of the maquila industry (1985-1994) is considered, when the productive processes included qualified work-force, technicians and engineers. The third phase, that of technological modernization (1995 to this day), includes the setting up of a research center for auto-parts, as well as the establishment of areas of engineering and design. Trade integration with the USA and Canada is viewed as a co-integration analysis. One important question is: does a long term linkage exist between the maquila exports and the imports carried out by the USA of goods and services coming from Mexico; subject to productivity as an exogenous variable? The result is that it does exist, and for every percentage point (1%) that USA’s imports increase, Mexican maquila exports grow 2.018%. An increase in productivity acts as expected, increasing exports. However, if it is taken into account that China continues to grow as an important supplier of the USA market, this presents a problem for Mexico’s industrial policy, which should be treated in relation to how Mexico’s trade policy is carried out.

Key Words: outsourcing industry (maquila), exports, foreign currency, employment, productivity, NAFTA, commercial integration, co-integration, commercial policy.
JEL Classification: L22, L23, L51, L52, L62, L68.

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